Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Investing. Show all posts

Friday, July 16, 2010

Spreading the Wealth - Spread & Long/Short Strategies

The magnitude and speed at which financial innovation has occurred over the past thirty years is nothing short of astonishing. Increasingly complex financial products give investors the flexibility to implement more complex investment strategies. It is impossible to find the ‘perfect’ investment style or strategy; rather different strategies cater to different levels of investor sophistication and goals. Before trying to decide on a particular investing one must consider their own particular risk tolerance, time horizon, investment objective, need for liquidity and so on. Investing in a financial product with an initial lockup period might provide an excellent risk-adjusted return however would be completely in-appropriate for an individual that needs unobstructed access to their funds.

Market leaders are companies that are expected to show more potential than their peers or the market and posses a position of dominance compares to the offerings or market position of their peers. The opposite can also be said for companies that are ‘under performers’ relative to their sector, industry and index. This is where the concept of a spread trade comes in. In any given sector an investor can select what they think to be the leader(s) and underperformer(s) and exploit the spread (difference) between the outperforming leader and underperforming lager. This would be achieved by going long the outperformer and short the underperformer. In an ideal situation positive return would be achieved from the leader generating positive returns and the lager producing negative returns, thus return a profit on both the short and long positions.

The same logic could be applied to a sector and either a strong/poor company and its sector. With a negative outlook on the sector one could short it, and long a market leader. The logic being that even if the market leader and the sector both fall, the market leader will fall less than the overall sector meaning that the short on the sector will return more profit than the loss will be on the market leader, leaving the investor with an overall positive return from the combined two positions.

It goes without saying that there are risks with this investing style, some that are more specific to the style and others that apply generally to investing. One of the principal risks is that both the long and the short positions move against the investor, this could produce even greater losses than being simply long or short. Proper risk management measures will help to limit the extent of losses, such as a stop loss on the long position and a limit buy on the short position. Another risk for a trader could be a break from a historical relationship that exists between a pair of securities. A break in these traditional trading bands, ranges in which securities trade, can be cause by moments of market panic or euphoria. This in turn can be problematic for investor with a long/short spread trade because the two securities are out of their normal trading range and may not respond in the predictable way the investor expected. A matter of moments is all that it may take to break a historical relationship that has existed for such a long period of time that it is almost taken for granted. This reliance on empirical observations is not unique to this particular investment approach however this investment style is susceptible to this type of problem.

Saturday, January 2, 2010

Buffet in Santa Fe

Berkshire Hathaway, the company run by Warren Buffet is a conglomerate holding company based in Omaha Nerbraska. The company has holdings in a wide variety of businesses such as insurance (GEICO),retail, home furnishings, jewelry sales, newspaper publishing, as well as several regional electric and gas utilities. Berkshire has major investments in major corporations such as beverage giant Coca-Cola and US bank Goldman Sachs. Berkshire Class A shares are currently trading at $103,250.00 (US) and BNI is currently trading at $98.10 (US) (At Nov 20th, 2009).

Berkshire agreed to buy the stock that it does not already own in Burlington Northern Santa Fe (BNI). It had originally made a purchase of BNI’s stock in Jan of 2009. BNI is the second largest U.S. railroad company with over 6,300 locomotives and over 32,000 miles of routes. The company transports freight, such as coal and agricultural products, throughout the western United States. The deal was roughly for $26bn in cash and stock. (http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/8349065.stm) Burlington has one major railway competitor, Union Pacific. After Berkshire acquired BNI the stock price went from $75 to $95, a 27% increase, on November 3rd.

Coal transportation accounted for 23% of BNI's business in 2008. Consumer products accounted for 34% of freight revenues in 2008. Industrial products made up 23% of freight revenues in 2008. This includes, building products (lumber, plywood, etc), construction products (clay, sand, cement, etc), petroleum products (liquefied petroleum gas etc), chemicals and plastics and food and beverage (canned goods, perishable food, etc). Agricultural products were 20% of freight revenues in 2008[1]. This includes wheat, corn, soybeans, and barley along with other grains. BNI's network is positioned to serve the agricultural regions of the Midwest and Great Plains. The agricultural products segment has experienced growth recently due to the tremendous interest in ethanol fuel, which is derived from corn.

Although fuel costs could be a concern for a transportation company, railroads can benefit from higher fuel prices since they are more efficient than trucking in transporting various products. This tends to shift transportation demand towards railroads with rising energy prices, thus somewhat insulating them from their own rising fuel costs. http://cdn.wikinvest.com/i/px.gif

The deal was financed with $8 billion from JPMorgan Chase and Wells Fargo. Berkshire is paying roughly 1% to 2% above the London interbank offered rate (LIBOR). The cost of funding is minimized thanks to Berkshire’s AAA-rating[2]. It is impressive that a company has retained such a high credit rating especially when other major financial institutions have a lower credit rating, especially throughout the recent economic crisis (LIBOR is based on AA rated major London banks).

Berkshire delivers very strong and consistent performance over time; excluding the derivative and investment gains, Berkshire's operating profit in the third quarter was flat at $2.06bn. The company's revenue was $29.9bn, up from $27.9bn last fiscal year.

To make such a large acquisition given the current economic situation is a testament to Berkshire’s financial strength. Given the long term value investing done by Mr. Buffet we can most likely expect a long term holding of BNI by Berkshire.



[1] BNI’s website

[2] Standard & Poor’s