Friday, July 16, 2010

Spreading the Wealth - Spread & Long/Short Strategies

The magnitude and speed at which financial innovation has occurred over the past thirty years is nothing short of astonishing. Increasingly complex financial products give investors the flexibility to implement more complex investment strategies. It is impossible to find the ‘perfect’ investment style or strategy; rather different strategies cater to different levels of investor sophistication and goals. Before trying to decide on a particular investing one must consider their own particular risk tolerance, time horizon, investment objective, need for liquidity and so on. Investing in a financial product with an initial lockup period might provide an excellent risk-adjusted return however would be completely in-appropriate for an individual that needs unobstructed access to their funds.

Market leaders are companies that are expected to show more potential than their peers or the market and posses a position of dominance compares to the offerings or market position of their peers. The opposite can also be said for companies that are ‘under performers’ relative to their sector, industry and index. This is where the concept of a spread trade comes in. In any given sector an investor can select what they think to be the leader(s) and underperformer(s) and exploit the spread (difference) between the outperforming leader and underperforming lager. This would be achieved by going long the outperformer and short the underperformer. In an ideal situation positive return would be achieved from the leader generating positive returns and the lager producing negative returns, thus return a profit on both the short and long positions.

The same logic could be applied to a sector and either a strong/poor company and its sector. With a negative outlook on the sector one could short it, and long a market leader. The logic being that even if the market leader and the sector both fall, the market leader will fall less than the overall sector meaning that the short on the sector will return more profit than the loss will be on the market leader, leaving the investor with an overall positive return from the combined two positions.

It goes without saying that there are risks with this investing style, some that are more specific to the style and others that apply generally to investing. One of the principal risks is that both the long and the short positions move against the investor, this could produce even greater losses than being simply long or short. Proper risk management measures will help to limit the extent of losses, such as a stop loss on the long position and a limit buy on the short position. Another risk for a trader could be a break from a historical relationship that exists between a pair of securities. A break in these traditional trading bands, ranges in which securities trade, can be cause by moments of market panic or euphoria. This in turn can be problematic for investor with a long/short spread trade because the two securities are out of their normal trading range and may not respond in the predictable way the investor expected. A matter of moments is all that it may take to break a historical relationship that has existed for such a long period of time that it is almost taken for granted. This reliance on empirical observations is not unique to this particular investment approach however this investment style is susceptible to this type of problem.

Monday, July 12, 2010

De-risking gold producers

One can group the various risks of gold producers into two main categories: operational and developmental (for a detailed list see my previous article:http://morettooninvesting.blogspot.com/2010/06/evaluating-gold-producer.html) There are a few producers today that exhibit quite a bit of development risk although they are expected to have a relatively limited amount of operating risk when their projects eventually do come online. I will focus on two poster boys of the industry Detour Gold Corp. and Osisko Mining Corp. Both companies share many similarities, both have a single mine, both are located in Canada, both expect to produce 500,000 ounces of gold per year or more, and both will produce very minimal amounts of by-product metals. The main differences between the two companies are the following. First, Osisko’s mine has 8.4 million ounces of proven and probable gold reserves whereas Detour has over 11 million ounces in proven and probable reserves. The second main difference is that Osisko is expected to start producing gold in 2011 where Detour is expected to start production in 2013.

There are obviously pluses and minuses that one should consider before investing in a development stage gold producer. First and foremost is the risk of having any possible difficulties in the actual construction and setup of the mine. Failing to meet expected completion and gold production dates can show up negatively on share price. The market applies an even larger discount to companies such as Osisko and Detour who are undertaking their very first mine development project. The one thing that makes these companies very attractive is that once they de-risk (start actually producing gold) the discount disappears. The thing that makes these two producers more appealing than the average development stage gold producer is that aside from development risk, both companies will have very low operating risk. The fact that both companies have resources with very high gold concentration also helps increase their respective stock’s leverage to gold. Both companies also benefit from having low cash costs in the $400 range, helping to ensure that they will be able to generate positive cash flows even if gold prices turn south. Ultimately if an investor has patience and tolerance of mine development risk, these two gold developers can provide a very appealing alternative to a traditional large gold producer.